I spent some time this A.M. scanning the Internet for comments about the Jay/Conan/Dave situation and I was struck by the extent to which fans balk at accepting that their favorite performers evolve and there's nothing they can do about it.
The Beatles did not spend their careers singing songs that went "Yeah, yeah, yeah" and Woody Allen moved beyond jokey films like Bananas. As a talk show host gets older and as the world around him changes, it is inevitable that his act would change. A lot of Conan fans seem fearful that, five years from now when he takes over The Tonight Show, he won't feel he can bring along Preparation-H Raymond and the Masturbating Bear. What I don't think they realize, or want to face, is that five years from now, Conan probably wouldn't be doing those bits, or bits like those bits, anyway. He will change, and NBC's banking on him changing in a way that will work at 11:35 in the year 2009. It's a gamble but it may not be as big a gamble as some other possible scenarios which would involve him competing now with Jay and/or Dave.
I have a friend who thinks that both Letterman and Leno are doing very weak programs that ought to be advertised, "Watch our show! Our host used to be real funny." And he suggests that neither host is doing the once-traditional prime-time anniversary special with highlights from the previous year because neither host can fill out an hour with highlights from the previous year. I wouldn't go that far but I wouldn't argue much that Jay and Dave are both coasting on a certain amount of momentum. Both have matured past their old, more irreverent styles and they're not going back to them, any more than Steve Martin's going to put on the arrow-thru-the-head prop and return to doing stand-up.
Once upon a time, it looked like Carson could go on forever…but television has changed. For most of his run, Johnny had little or no competition. In fact, when he stepped down, an NBC exec theorized to me that Mr. Carson quit because he'd realized that the game was intensifying; that to stay in it would have meant reinventing his act, doing more shows per year and beating back challengers a lot more formidable than Alan Thicke and Pat Sajak. Just as Dave can no longer be Number One, there will soon come a time when Jay can't be, either. Or if either is, it will only be by default.
And speaking of "out of control": One of the things NBC has done with this move is to change the rules of the game. They're now planning way ahead and this will probably force CBS to do likewise. Right now, the execs at NBC have their 11:35 show set through the year 2011 (Jay's five years plus two guaranteed to Conan), and they have plenty of time to figure out 12:35 and find the right occupant. They can even sign someone way in advance. Jon Stewart — the name most often-mentioned when folks speak of new combatants in the late night arena — is signed to The Daily Show through 2008. Right this minute, NBC could be offering him a deal to replace Conan at 12:35, effective in '09.
By contrast, CBS is sitting there with no real host for their 12:35 show next month, let alone down the line…no idea how long Dave will elect to remain at 11:35…and no idea who they might get to replace him when he departs. During the last decade or two of Carson's marathon run, there was usually someone ready to go in for him — someone who, if Johnny suddenly dropped dead or quit, was the obvious choice to take over The Tonight Show. Usually, that was a frequent guest host and for the last five or so years of Johnny's run, they had two strong arms in the bullpen: A frequent guest host (Jay) and the guy who followed Johnny (Dave), both poised and ready. Throughout Letterman's stint on CBS, however, there has been no one on student stand-by. Dave resisted guest hosts and, when hospitalization forced the issue, most of the folks picked were names unlikely to ever be considered for a permanent position in that time slot. The same has been true of the occupiers of the 12:35 slot after Dave — Tom Snyder and then Craig Kilborn. At one point, Letterman's company had Jon Stewart under contract but apart from filling in a few times for Snyder, he did not get on the air.
This situation of having no one "on deck" for Dave's time slot will now have to change. He can probably stay there as long as he wants but at some point soon, the network's going to come to him and say that he cannot be an obstacle to them signing and grooming a successor. Moreover, like Conan, that successor may have to be able to see that the 11:35 job will be his within some reasonable length of time. Late night has become too important for CBS to say they'll wait 'til Dave's ready to leave, then they'll look around and see who's available and see what kind of deal they can make with that person.
Which makes you wonder how, if at all, this relates to the sudden abdication of Kilborn, who recently vacated the 12:35 slot. I'm told by folks at CBS that it was of his own free will and that it really did come as a surprise to everyone. Still, Kilborn's not dumb. He had to know that the issue of who was going to replace Dave would someday rear its head, that he wouldn't be considered, and that there were those at CBS determined to install Conan or Jon or some potential 11:35 talent in that position. I think Leno's smart to plan out his future as well as he has. I think O'Brien's smart to hang in there and get The Tonight Show for himself. And I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Craig Kilborn, consciously or not, didn't do the smartest thing of all by getting out when he did.