Let me preface this by emphasizing that I do not believe that any one poll is an inarguable, accurate reflection of the electorate…and that even if one is, a lot can change between now and Election Day.
That said, polls can also have an impact on the election and I think this one [WARNING: PDF file] will. It has generally poor news for Bush, showing Kerry equal or ahead in most categories. There are a number of those out but they can be dismissed as "biased," which always seems to me like a silly charge to level against a poll from a major news organization. They might be inept and inaccurate, but I don't think they're ever intentionally skewed.
But this is a Fox News Poll. Kind of hard to dismiss that as biased against Bush-Cheney. A lot of folks will pounce on this to justify the claim that the Republican ticket is in free fall.
I don't know that it is. But there's an old saying in politics that even when you're ahead, you should always run as if you're five points back. And if everyone starts saying the Bush campaign is five points back, they'll have to run as if they're ten down…which means throwing everything they can think of at the opposition.
We all knew this election was going to get dirty. I think we're all going to be stunned at how dirty it will get. And how soon.