A company called The Rasmussen Poll does daily tracking reports for the presidential election. Yesterday, they had Bush at 47% and Kerry at 45%. Today, they have Bush at 44% and Kerry at 47%. They've put out a news release about this dramatic change, and quite a few news or political sites are announcing it and maybe even discussing it.
Okay, but this poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three points. So aren't these guys really unchanged from yesterday?
I think it's way too early to treat the polls with more than distant curiosity. I can't recall a single recent election where the polls in March had any connection to the results in November. But if we are going to look at these things, shouldn't we stop pretending that a shift within the margin of error has any meaning whatsoever?