This year, instead of pretending I have a clue about Best Editing or Sound, I'm limiting my forecasting to 19 races. Here is not who I want to see win but who I believe will win…
- Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Best Director: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Best Actor: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
- Best Actress: Charlize Theron, Monster
- Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
- Best Supporting Actress: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
- Original Screenplay: Lost in Translation
- Adapted Screenplay: Mystic River
- Animated Feature: Finding Nemo
- Animated Short: Destino
- Foreign Feature: The Barbarian Invasions
- Documentary Feature: The Fog of War
- Art Direction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Score: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Original Song: "Kiss at the End of the Rainbow," A Mighty Wind
- Costume Design: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
- Documentary Short: The Chernobyl Heart
- Live-Action Short: Two Soldiers
To be honest, it's a coin flip between Bill Murray and Sean Penn for Best Actor and a wild guess for Best Song. Five or six of the above are projections that all the seers of filmland say are a lock…and I'll predict that at least one of those "can't go any other way" predictions will be wrong. One always is. I'll also predict…
- A joke about gay marriage within the first five minutes.
- Billy Crystal either having a breast exposed a la Janet Jackson or doing it to someone else.
- A joke about Michael Moore being bound and gagged backstage by Teamsters.
- One reference by someone along the lines of, "I hated what Michael Moore said last year. Imagine thinking our president would lie to us about something as important as a war."
- One acceptance speech in which the winner will say, "This is not the place for a political speech" and then make a political speech.
- One really freaky, revealing outfit on a presenter or winner which will have everyone outraged the next day.
- And enough stuff about the recent deceased to make you think you're at a funeral. Or reading this website.
Other than that, I'll meet you back here at half-past Joan Rivers for Live Oscar Blogging! And remember: Formal attire only.