Because a few friends asked me to do this, and because it's a good way for me to settle things in my own mind, I'd like to explain how I will probably vote on the matter of the Great California Recall Circus.
As usual, I expect to be looking at a ballot where I'd prefer to vote, "None of the Above." I don't really like any of the front-runners and can't quite grasp why anyone does. These days, when I hear someone who claims to be enthusiastic about their candidate, I tend to assume they've picked the least offensive option and are trying to convince us that it's a goodie. Often, they sound like they've managed to convince themselves. The best measure of Gray Davis's unpopularity may be that even his backers don't seem able to convince themselves that they're fortunate to have him in Sacramento. It pretty much comes down, not to a defense of the incumbent but to a condemnation of the replacements and the replacement process. Let me know if you see anyone saying he's been a good governor.
However, that said, I don't believe he's as wholly responsible for the state's financial woes as his opponents make him out to be. Every state has many of the same problems, and I do think Californians have not gotten sufficiently mad at the shenanigans of companies like Enron in manipulating energy prices and looting the state treasury. On the other hand, Davis sure didn't do enough to protect us from this, and his naked connection of campaign contributions with government action is exactly the kind of thing politicians should be punished for, at the polling place if not in court.
Should he go? Probably. Should he go this way? I don't think so. I actually like the idea of the public recalling elected officials but the current California rules strike me as too sloppy and too undemocratic. Davis could be removed because he only has 49% of the voters behind him and then be replaced by some guy who has 22%. In what passes for a real election in this country, you don't need 49% of the electorate. You just need more than any of your opponents, and that often works out to 45-49%. But if Davis gets 49%, he's out.
This is a dumb way to pick a governor. And it's distressing that a lot of people who are eager to get their guy into office aren't more discomforted by the process and the precedent.
So I'm voting "no" on the recall. As for the second half of the ballot: If Richard Riordan had run, I'd probably have voted for him. I don't agree with a lot of his views but he was a pretty good mayor for Los Angeles, and he seemed good at crisis management. I don't believe experience is everything but I also don't think it's meaningless. Given our current problems, experience may be more important than if the candidate agrees with you on a lot of issues which may or may not even come into play at the state level.
To me, Arnold S. is Riordan without the experience. I doubt I'll ever vote for anyone who runs for a major political position as an entry-level post. There were plenty of reasons to vote against Alan Keyes, Jesse Jackson, Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Al Sharpton, Ralph Nader and others in that category but to me, that was reason enough. If you want to be president, senator, governor or even mayor, start at the bottom. Run for the city council or something like that first.
There were only two ways I might have considered voting for Arnold. One would be if he pledged to bring the Enron-type looters to justice, even at the extent of embarrassing folks close to George W. Bush. But I don't see anyone, even Davis who let them rob us blind, doing that. The other reason might be if Schwarzenegger seemed to represent uncommon candor and honesty and a repudiation of the usual political bull. But now he's out there claiming he can solve the state's financial woes without raising taxes or cutting essentials, and I don't think he or anyone can…and what's more, I think they know that. If Arnold has a way, he's going to have to do a lot more explaining than he has. It looks to me like they sent Warren Buffett out to float the trial balloon of an increase in property taxes and from the response realized it would drive too many Republicans over to Tom McClintock. So now Schwarzenegger is distancing himself from that idea. To his credit, he's stopped running on a platform of recycled movie dialogue ("I, the Terminator, will go to Sacramento and tell everyone, 'Hasta la vista, baby") but what's replaced it is pretty typical political pandering. The state's budget is the worst disaster in the history of mankind but it can be solved without sacrifice. Right.
Of all the names on my ballot, the one who impresses me the most is probably Peter Ueberroth but it's hard to imagine him staying in the race 'til election day, let alone winning. So it looks like I'm going to vote for Cruz Bustamante. He has some experience, at least. Alas, the main argument for him seems to be that to defeat Arnold, the anti-Arnold voters have to pick one guy and concentrate their votes on him, and Bustamante is that guy. That's not a great reason to ever vote for anyone, but it seems to be the best alternative: No on the recall, Yes on Bustamante. Barring some candidate vowing to string up Ken Lay, that's how I'm marking my ballot.
Of course, if Gallagher can just get into the debates and smash a few melons, he has my vote. But I somehow don't see that happening.