The polls on the recall seem to be all over the place. Schwarzenegger and Bustamonte seem to be out in front, and if you take the margin of error into account (as almost no one does), they're neck and neck. Polls also say that Californians are ready to boot Mr. Davis, though perhaps the tide is turning in his favor. Maybe.
It strikes me that all this polling is pretty meaningless. There are still a lot of undecideds, at least with regard to the second part of the ballot, and voters don't know very much about what either Arnold or Cruz intends to do. Before election day, each will probably have a "scandal" or two, and that may affect things, as may voters coming to understand more about the procedure. In the last week, I've explained to three separate friends, all of whom I would rate as quite intelligent, that no matter how they vote on Part One of the ballot, they can still vote on Part Two. All three thought that if they voted to keep Davis, they'd have no say in his replacement. If that's widespread, that could signal major shifts in the weeks to come. This kind of balloting is utterly unprecedented and that further cripples the polling process, which is based on taking current samplings and plugging them into models of past elections. Since there's never been an election quite like this one, the pollsters are flying blinder than usual.
My gut feeling at the moment, which is almost as worthless as the polls, is that the first half of the ballot will be a squeaker, hinging on which side is more motivated to actually cast ballots. I feel Davis will do better than a lot of people expect, but that's only if he doesn't do something real stupid before October 7. And I sure wouldn't bet money that he won't. At the moment, he looks like he's running against George W. Bush and a Republican effort to undo elections. That will only get him so far, which probably won't be far enough. At the moment, the person out there making the best case that Davis doesn't deserve to be blamed for the state's fiscal crisis is Peter Ueberroth, and no one's listening to him.
Bill Simon, who I saw on TV yesterday vowing he would never drop out of the race, has dropped out of the race. His spokesperson said, "There was absolutely no pressure, no phone calls — this was a decision made by Bill Simon based on rational conclusions," and of course we don't believe that for a minute. In any case, most of his support will probably go to McClintock. If McClintock stays in to the end and splits the Republican vote, we're probably looking at Governor Cruz. If McClintock gets out, then the race is Arnold's to lose, and he might do just that. The Republican base can't be that wild about a guy who's pro-choice, in favor of some gay rights, thought the impeachment was a sham, makes violent movies, smokes dope, has more rumors of marital infidelity than Clinton ever had, etc. It won't take a lot of sizzling revelations to discourage those folks from flocking to the polls.
But who knows? I have an uneasy feeling that the end result will be a governor who has a lot less support than Davis. That is, Davis will lose because only 47% of the state wants to keep him…but then he'll be replaced by a guy who's wanted by 28% of the state. That such an outcome is even possible ought to alarm some people. Is this the kind of Democracy we want to bring to Iraq? But I keep reading articles by folks who think any process that gets rid of G. Davis can't possibly have anything wrong with it.
Some articles are now saying that Rob Reiner seriously considered entering the race. If you think you're sick of "Terminator" references dominating the election coverage, just imagine how looney it would be with "Meathead" on the ballot.
And I just read that Gallagher is trying to get himself included in some of the major debates. If he gets into one, and if he will answer some question about the budget by smashing a watermelon, I swear to God I will vote for him.