Here's an example of something that annoys me about reporting these days. The headline on this story and many others in this morning's newspapers is "Poll shows Bustamante leading Schwarzenegger." The story then goes on to tell us that according to a Field Poll released on Friday, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a three-point lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger among those likely to vote in the Oct. 7 recall election.
Okay. But way down at the end of the article, one might notice this line…
The Field Poll, conducted by telephone from Sunday to Wednesday, interviewed 629 registered voters. It has an error rate of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
So Bustamante has a three-point lead in a poll with a five-point margin of error. Doesn't that mean that they're tied? That Schwarzenegger could even be ahead of him?
One could argue that the poll is inaccurate or that it's way too early for a poll to be meaningful. But leaving such questions aside, shouldn't its findings be reported for what they are, which is kind of a dead heat?
The other interesting thing here is that the folks running the September 17 debate have said they'll invite the top six contenders, as determined by the polls. If the numbers of this Field Poll hold up, that would mean Bustamante, Schwarzenegger, McClintock, Simon, Ueberroth and Huffington. But remember: This poll has a five-point margin of error. So Larry Flynt, Gallagher, Angelyne and all those folks who currently have 1% or less could actually be ahead of Arianna Huffington, who has 4%. Betcha Flynt's lawyers could do something with that.