Admittedly going out on a limb, Michael Tomasky of The American Prospect predicts that Cruz Bustamante will defeat Arnold Schwarzenegger. I think he's wrong but I think Tomasky is out on an interesting limb, and the reasons he gives as to why Arnold won't win are probably valid reasons why he won't win by much.
Then again, I still think it's too early to count out Gallagher.