If you search the news sites, you'll find about fifty stories saying that, according to those close to him, Arnold Schwarzenegger has definitely decided not to run for governor of California. (Reuters: "Schwarzenegger to Terminate Governor Bid.")
You'll also find another fifty in which his official reps deny that he's made up his mind. (New York Times: "Schwarzenegger and Top Ally Mum as Filing Deadline Nears.")
I still think he won't run. I think he's milking this to get as much publicity as possible, to screw around a little with the press, and perhaps to get maximum attention when he tells his supporters that he won't be a candidate but wants them all to support his pal, Richard Riordan.
The filing deadline is Saturday, August 9. The current plan is for Arnold to appear with Jay Leno on Wednesday, August 6, to announce his decision. This is a smart move by Arnold to get attention and a smart move by Jay to get ratings. (Not that either needs it. Leno's ratings are through the roof lately. Near the end of Letterman's first year on CBS, that network's publicists were encouraging journalists to write articles that said the Late Night Wars were over and Dave was the once and future victor. Now, NBC's publicists are quietly hinting that the same story should be written, but with some nouns reversed.)
If Riordan runs, I'll probably vote for him to become the new governor. I can't think of anyone, Democrat or Republican, who's likely to be on the ballot I would prefer. But I'm also planning to vote "no" on the whole recall idea because I think it's an affront to the election process.