This article in the Los Angeles Times is headlined, "Slim Majority of Voters Backs Davis Recall." But aren't these polls pretty close to meaningless until such time as people see who else is going to be on the ballot? It's one thing to say you don't like the guy; another to say you'd prefer Candidate X. Once we know who we might be able to pick from to replace Davis, might he not look a lot better or worse to most voters? I don't think you can ever unseat an incumbent just by drumming up dislike of him. There has to be an alternative who could be a distinct improvement.
This is why I don't put much stock in these polls that tell us how much of the country would back Bush if the election were held tomorrow. They might be meaningful if the election were being held tomorrow but it isn't. By the time it is, the whole dynamic of the race will be different…including the possibility that some Democrat will have gained some real name recognition and made his case to the American people. I know that's looking increasingly unlikely but it just might happen. And if it does, it'll drive support for G.W.B. up or down depending on who that Democrat is and what that case is…and maybe even on where the economy and the war on terrorism stand at that moment.
But people love to read polls. So let's not let the fact that one whole side of the ballot is still a big Question Mark stop us from having a poll.