Jimmy Kimmel's new show debuts after the Super Bowl, then starts its regular run on Monday night/Tuesday morn. I have no real idea how it will do but if forced to guess, I'd say a big first week, and then it'll depend on how much ABC/Disney allows him to get away with. Kimmel is very funny and he seems to want to make his show as spontaneous as I've long wished Letterman or Leno would try to be. If he were going into the slot Bill Maher will soon be inhabiting on HBO, I'd predict a very good shot at a very big hit.
Perhaps I'm hesitant because, as long as I've been in the teevee biz, I've heard folks talk about "flow" and how you want to program back-to-back, shows that are compatible so that each delivers audience to the next. The increase in cable channels and delayed (i.e., taped or TiVoed) viewing has somewhat diminished that concept but still, Ted Koppel to Jimmy Kimmel is about as jarring a hand-off as you could construct. Koppel didn't even want to mention Politically Incorrect, which featured some of the same topics and guests as does Nightline. Do we think the words, "Stay tuned for Jimmy Kimmel as he welcomes Snoop Dogg" will ever escape Mr. Koppel's lips?
Kimmel's show is live, a decision I assume was made partly because they were worried about ABC affiliates bumping the show to a later slot. (That was the main reason Saturday Night Live was live — to discourage affiliates from delaying it, as they were doing with the Carson reruns it replaced.) Live could give the new show a welcome distinction from the carefully-planned hijinks of Dave and Jay — but if things get too raw, affiliates may be hard-pressed to explain why Maher had to go, but Kimmel remains. Jimmy starts with only about 80% live clearances and may live or die depending on if that percentage goes up or down.
Before he lost a couple of key stations, Maher was averaging 2.5 million viewers a night in the time slot. It'll be a little difficult to compare Kimmel's numbers since his show is an hour, and all late night shows experience a drop-off as folks go to bed. (When you hear that Jay or Dave had a 4 rating, that probably means they had a 5 at the beginning of the show, dropping to a 3 by the end.) It will further complicate ratings evaluations if Nightline runs over, as it occasionally has. My guess would be that Jimmy Kimmel Live! will ultimately be judged more by its advertiser support than its ratings. During the time Letterman's numbers were down in the high twos and low threes, what kept him afloat was that certain sponsors — beer companies, in particular — loved the demos of the audience he delivered. ABC is saying that they don't expect Kimmel to take much away from Letterman or Leno; that they expect him to bring a new audience to late night. That may just be talk to lower expectations, but to the extent it's true, it would mean they think he'll sell a lot of Gap jeans and Budweiser. If he does that, regardless of the numbers, he could have a very long run on ABC. That is, if no one says the "f" word.