Last Word (for now) on the Oscars

One more thought on the Oscars and then I'll shut up: I think there's a silly tendency to try to discuss "The Vote" as if all the voters were working towards one goal and with one motive; like they all got together in a big room to mark their ballots and said, "Okay, it's time to make a racial statement.  Everyone vote for Denzel and Halle, but we'll give Best Director to Ron Howard because we liked him when he was Opie!"  Amidst this morning's web chat about the event — including, what a surprise, many who thought it was the Worst Oscar Show Ever — I see a lot of this.

A large group of people voted without consultation, and we have only a tiny piece of information as to how they voted.  We know which films and people got the most votes but for all we know, each winner could have gotten 21% of the vote in a razor-close five-way competition.  Nonetheless, we not only act like the whole Academy chose Halle Berry, we pretend they all had the same thing on their brains…then we further extrapolate to discuss the mindset of the voters in all categories; what they were collectively trying to say with this year's awards.

Fact is, there probably isn't one — or even one dominant — trend.  We do this with political elections, as well ("Twelve states voted Republican because they're fed up with high property taxes") but at least there, we have various opinion polls and the exact vote totals from which to speculate.  We still go too far, trying to assign one thought process to a large group of divergent minds — we color a whole state red or blue based on 51% of the vote — but there's some basis, however vague, for interpreting the win.  Oscar votes, apart from being even less important, have the luxury of no data whatsoever that can ever validate or belie any analysis.  We can say, "Well, this year, Academy voters were trying to say they don't like the price of Raisinets at the refreshment stand," and nothing can ever prove us wrong.  I think it's silly to pretend that a whole group of people — whose identities none of us really know — all spoke with one set of sensibilities and purpose.  For all we know, this year's "statement" was about the price of Raisinets.

Okay.  Now, I'll shut up.  By the way, they still have no idea if it's going to rain Thursday.