So already I'm getting e-mail asking what I think is up with the news that ABC is (a) ready to dump Nightline and maybe Politically Incorrect and (b) offering David Letterman a rajah's ransom to make the leap. The story was broken this morn in The New York Times by Bill Carter and if you didn't read it, here's a link to the piece. I haven't spoken yet to anyone with inside info but I think we can deduce a few things by asking the simple question, "Why is this in the paper?" The fact that Mr. Carter got a lot more than denials and "No comment" means that the story was leaked — presumably by Letterman's people. The obvious motive would be to put pressure on CBS, where negotiations for his contract renewal are probably not giving him what he wants…yet.
To me, the most interesting question is what could be a deal point that would drive Dave to ABC? Could it be money? Probably not. There's no reason CBS couldn't match whatever ABC would pay. Could it be less network interference? Again, probably not. The Carter article notes that Letterman has had his differences with Les Moonves at CBS…but Dave's been in the biz long enough to know that network vice-presidents have short life-spans, and that you don't sign a long-term contract because you like this week's execs at one company more than this week's execs at another. Besides, Letterman already has almost total control of his show, and CBS wouldn't lose a major profit center over the few matters that may be at issue.
Could it be, as Carter seems to suggest, that Letterman thinks the ABC demographics and lead-ins would make him more competitive? The difference isn't all that enormous; not enough to warrant all the tumult that a switch would involve, including some inevitable staff shake-ups, probable loss of the Ed Sullivan Theater and cutting Craig Kilborn's show adrift…to say nothing of the sheer uncertainty of beating whoever his successor on CBS turned out to be. Besides, if we wind up with three entertainment-oriented talk shows in that slot, carving the audience three ways instead of two, someone is liable to get hurt and that someone could be Letterman. It could be real embarrassing to make the switch and not get higher numbers, either because of increased competition or because the network itself didn't matter all that much. One might also recall that right after Dave migrated to CBS, its demographics and lead-ins changed dramatically. No one can say it won't happen again.
No, my guess is that CBS and Letterman were simply at an impasse over all the usual issues (money, control, promotion) and that the network wasn't taking seriously the fact that Dave had an allegedly-solid offer from ABC. Releasing this story, as they have, makes the threat more real and turns up the heat on CBS to cave…as they probably will. Carter's article would read a lot different if Letterman really wanted to go or CBS didn't want to keep him, and both have plenty to lose in a divorce and not all that much to gain. It might happen but it would have to be over something petty and personal, as opposed to something that made sense for either side. On the other hand, a lot of what went on the last time Letterman switched networks was petty and personal…from all sides.
So where does that leave Ted Koppel? Carter's sources at ABC probably said what they said because that network's cooling to the whole idea of Nightline. With the rise of Fox News, MSNBC, CNN (et al), that show doesn't make as much sense as it once did. It was created, let's remember, during the 70's hostage crisis and when it's dipped in ratings since then, folks at ABC have usually figured that it would rise and fall as major news stories dominated the news. That hasn't happened. The 9/11 terrorism was as big a story as anyone could imagine and it only bolstered Nightline's numbers for a little while, and not by all that much. Its survival may have a lot to do with whether Koppel, who's been absent a lot lately, makes a renewed commitment to it. If they snare Letterman, it'll probably be axed or moved to another time slot where it can quietly fade from view. If they don't snare Letterman, then it'll probably endure until a terrific candidate emerges who can go head-to-head with Dave and Jay. No names stick out at the moment but eventually, one will.
And where does this leave Bill Maher? The replacement of Nightline would probably mean his exit from ABC, if only because whatever went there would almost certainly be an hour and Maher wouldn't (or shouldn't) stand for being bumped to 12:35. If Dave's the replacement, he'll want his own, hand-picked, owned-by-Worldwide-Pants lead-out, anyway. Still, in spite of what's implied in the Carter piece, Politically Incorrect is probably quite profitable, at least when advertisers aren't defecting. It wouldn't surprise me if Maher turned into the big winner in all this, with Fox and various cable channels climbing over one another to lock him up. The show doesn't cost a lot to produce and some of those other venues are a lot more comfy with controversy than the Disney-owned ABC.
In any case, it's nice to have a new Late Night War in the news. But remember this about Late Night Wars: They make great copy and a lot of feelings get hurt…but in the long run, most of the key players survive and everyone involved goes home with a lot more money than when they started. It's just like Wrestlemania except that nobody gets hit over the head with a folding chair. Or, at least, they haven't yet.