For those of you intrigued by what's up with Jay Leno, the Hollywood Reporter has a pretty good article up. Here — go read it and then I'll tell you a few thoughts I have about it. I'll wait.
Back? Okay. One of the main things I'm hearing from folks "inside" all this is that the switchover from Leno to Fallon doesn't have as much to do with getting a younger audience as some are making out. As the article notes, the median age of a Fallon viewer is 53.3 whereas a Leno viewer clocks in at 58. Put Fallon on earlier and his audience would get a bit older and the gap would be even narrower. My friends tell me an awful lot of this is about the relative cost of the two shows. The new owners of NBC, Comcast, want cheaper programming and Fallon's cheaper. I don't think that's all of it but I think it's some of it and this article is the first time I've seen that mentioned.
The article cites the rumor that Seth Meyers would be in line to take over Late Night once Fallon moved up. I'm hearing that's possible but that a plan is circulating within NBC to replace Fallon with…no one. They could save even more money by making The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon ninety minutes. What this would mean for Carson Daly is beyond me.
What's probably happening right now is a negotiation between Leno's lawyer and NBC over when the change would occur…and perhaps more importantly, when Jay would be contractually free to begin entertaining and negotiating other offers. As the article notes, he is said to have this huge penalty payment built into his contract, the penalty to be paid if NBC yanks him off the air before the expiration of the pact. If they want to change horses before September of '14, they need to haggle over that amount, which means they need to haggle over when Jay can start formal talks with Fox and any other suitors. They're probably also discussing whether Jay will be a great sport or if he'll spend the rest of his Tonight Show days likening NBC executives to pythons.
The Reporter also has a piece by Jimmy Brogan, who was one of Jay's writers for quite some time — the main guy on monologue duty — arguing that Jay should keep his job at NBC because he's funny. I know folks who'll argue, "He's not," but remember that Brogan is talking partly about the past. Also, Jimmy opens for Jay at the Comedy and Magic Club in Hermosa Beach on most Sundays. I don't think too many folks would find what Jay does down there or in Vegas these days unfunny.
An interesting discussion I've had with some other folks who write or perform mirth for a living is to what extent the difference between what Jay does in those venues and what he does on The Tonight Show is a matter of "dumbing-down" his act for the room. A lot of it may be just that the commitment to a long monologue every night means coming up with a hell of a lot of material every week…and performing it for the first and only time before all of America with no chance to test it out, break it in, etc. The comedian Steve Landesberg used to say that in one week, Johnny Carson used up more material in his monologue than he [Landesberg] developed in 20+ years of doing stand-up in clubs. Because he does five nights a week and a longer monologue, Jay does about twice as many jokes as even Johnny did.
Most talk show hosts really don't attempt it at all. Letterman seems to be making a joke out of how perfunctory his monologue is, repeating the same joke from night to night. (You can almost hear him saying to himself of his studio audience, "These people will laugh at anything.") Fallon, O'Brien and the others all seem to treat the monologue as some necessary ritual they have to get through at the opening of their programs before the real show begins. Craig Ferguson is a separate category I'll address in some other posting here. The only guys on right now who I think really try to do an actual, long monologue are Leno and Bill Maher — and Maher's only on once a week.
One other note in the Reporter article: Its writer says of the odd square dance 'twixt and Leno and O'Brien: "…while Leno remained mostly silent during the Conan debacle — even as his rivals and the media pushed a Leno-as-villain narrative — this time he fueled the flames of speculation." I understand the vested interest that guys like Letterman and Kimmel had in trashing the guy who was beating them in the ratings — and I lost a load of respect for Dave for stooping to that. I also understand the ways in which O'Brien feels he was wronged by NBC. They aren't all that different from the way lots of stars and producers feel when the network loses faith in their show, perhaps foolishly. What I've never understood is what anyone thinks Jay did that was unethical or sleazy. That is, unless you think that once a person has had a great job for X years, they're under some moral imperative to voluntarily pass it on to someone else. (If that's the rule, when do I get to host Jeopardy!?)
I've discussed this with others in the TV industry and none of them seem to understand it, either. Would someone like to try explaining this to me? It has to be an explanation that isn't based largely on the premise that Conan's Tonight Show was so much better than Jay's because, first off, I don't think it was. And secondly, even if it was, that's not the way things ever work in the entertainment industry. The network might fire a host because they think that but the host is under no obligation to quit because someone else thinks he's not as good. Also, Conan's Tonight Show was not destroyed by the bad lead-in from The Jay Leno Show. O'Brien was getting weak numbers before that ill-fated show of Jay's debuted…and if Jay hadn't been on at 10 PM getting low ratings, something else would have been there getting low ratings…as most of what's there now does. The job description of hosting The Tonight Show involves following whatever unsuccessful show NBC has on at 10:00 and it will remain a handicap whenever James Fallon has to try it.
I have no problem with those who don't find Leno funny. I like some of what he does and cringe or yawn at a lot of it. I'm a little mystified at those who can't grasp that an awful lot of America loves what this guy does and that he's outlived 20+ years of predictions that his show couldn't sustain the numbers it's sustained. I never liked Star Trek but it would be kinda sightless for me to then leap to the conclusion that no one else does. Anyone want to take a crack at telling me what heinous thing Jay Leno did that warrants folks on the Internet deriding him as evil, scheming, backstabbing, etc.?